Tag Archives: GBP/USD

Forex

Long-term map on forex major pairs EUR/USD & GBP/USD

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Fundamental Outlook

First of all, there are major shift which happen in the world as of now, Here is the major outlook on several countries:

  1. USA – the trend is bullish for the currency as The Fed ready to increase the interest rate three fold. But, outlook on political ground is uncertain as President Trump might rock the financial market with his policies
  2. Europe – There is slow switch from bearish to bullish trend as the countries inside Eurozone recovered. Brexit might cause heavy casualties, and Eurozone waiting for other possible referendum. Though bearish, expect shift of Euro from bearish to bullish this year or the year after.
  3. Japan – No change to policies, they love the Yen weakness and will continue to do it.  But if most central bank start increase their interest-rate. Japan might end its negative rate policy.
  4. China – Being attacked by President Trump is not a happy thing. The country stay strong but growth slowly decline.
  5. Australia – May enjoy upward momentum in the currecy as gold and other precious metal recovered in inflation laden economy.

Out of all positive news, Euro will become weakest currency followed by UK Pound sterling. And there is possibility the world tension increase under protectionism policy implemented by advanced economy.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD

EUR/USD bull might not love this situation where the pair is near the top of consolidation range. In March, the pair might be limited below 1.0800 and start moving down after the top tested. But, it is possible for the bull to reverse the major trend too. For now, let’s just look at price reaction near the top 1.0800.

GBP/USD

I am waiting for short opportunity in GBP/USD also. Similar to EUR/USD the pair might experience sharp turn at the end of March as UK trigger Brexit. Watch for short chance in the pair.

Trading Plan

Short position  at 1.0800 for EUR/USD with stop above 1.0850++, possible to add position at 1.0825.

Short position when GBP/USD hit 1.2480 – 1.2500, stop placed 100 pips above the area.

Note: Will switch to long position depend on fundamental development.

Forex

22 April 2016 Possible trade review

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Spike! yes big spike, really scary… nope I don’t think so. My hand was empty and my attention was not in trading when this happen. Then you’ll be surprised when this happened… again, nope.

As someone who already tasted nastiness of margin call, it will be foolish to repeat same mistake. Einstein said:

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

If you ever got margin call and experience it second time, that’s fine because you’re still alive and nobody become expert in several margin calls. But hey, if you maintain margin call rate continuously, I’d join Einstein and say you’re insane, get a life!

There’s only 1 way to avoid margin call, remember only 1 way and such a boring way but proven (I’m not saying profitable, but at least its certain way to avoid margin call). Read until end of this article to see the way.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Review

EURUSDM15 possible tradeEUR/USD moving up sharply but later moving down sharply too, if we see from start of day – end of day. Nothing really changed. Something big could have happened, but I don’t know the result. (I’ll know later after browsing around and read news).

We are here not to satisfy  our needs to know more, but we are here to take out of market what little we can live with. Reviewing chance to trade, I already marked 4 points where trade possibly taken.

A – Short trade, yes if I’m there I would’ve already taken the trade and result in losing trade (Stop loss blue channel).

B – Long trade, Highly possible another losing trade, but I’ll never take it as price move really fast.

C – Short trade – After B, trade at C surely have higher chance to be successful and it move at least to blue and red channel where we can take profit.

D – Short trade – similar to C

GBPUSDM15 spike newsGBP/USD same trait as EUR/USD yesterday, here are the review:

A – Short trade, almost reach blue channel target line. End up with loss if not present.

B – Short trade, less likely taken because of 1 fast candle moving to balance line. But if taken it’ll be another loss

C – Long trade, this one also less likely taken with same reason as B.

I’m not discussing after C because I forgot to market D point Lol, but if you take any trade it should be short.

Now as I promised in the middle of this article, what is the only way to avoid margin call? the answer is sound trading plan with stop loss mentioned before any trade taken. All of the risk already calculated and we already know if it failed we’ll loss $x.

Sounds lame, but remember 1 think, we are here not for flashy things, we are here to make profit, as long as we remember that, we’ll move to right direction. Happy green pips.