U.S dollar index July 2024 technical outlook

The overall movement of U.S dollar index has been bullish since 2021 – 2022 from below 90.00 to almost 115.00. The bullish movement also retraced to 100.00 point and begin to range up to 107.XX. We could say the index has retraced 50% of the 2021-2022 bullish movement and currently undergoing a consolidation.

U.S. dollar index fundamental view

Fundamentally, situation of the U.S dollar index remains uncertain and depend on the Fed decision on the interest-rate. While this article was written, CME Fedwatch showed 70.8% chance of rate-cut in September.

U.S. dollar index to continue moving sideways

Monthly Chart

On the monthly chart, we could see the U.S. dollar index broke above the 100.00 also the green area. And the index currently trading up and down from the green area. It seems the 100.00 will continue act as support level and traders will focus on the reactions near the point.

Weekly Chart

The situation on the weekly chart show more ranging situation as the high and low gets tighter. It is only a matter of time the index will make a strong movement to print a new higher high or lower low. (It could happen at the end of year after FOMC rate announcement)

Daily Chart

Zooming in the daily chart, there is a triangle consolidation on the chart. The index also moving lower and might reach the daily SMA 200 soon. At the current time, it is best to wait for triangle breakout or test of daily SMA 200. If the index breakout lower then 100.00 will become the support level to watch.

Trading plan

Stay sideline or trading the range might be the best idea to take for now. When the index manage to breakout from the triangle in the daily chart or print new higher high / lower low on the weekly chart, it is the time to decide to enter long-term positions.

September – December might be the time when a breakout happen.

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