Bitcoin analysis: Is it still on bullish track to reach new record high?

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Bitcoin Still on bullish track?

The latest series of sell-off spook the market and bring Bitcoin lower. We have Bybit hack, President Trump tariff-war, Libra coin rug, Jupiter coin manipulation and anything that spread fear to the market. All of the event made the Fear and greed index to reach extreme level of 10.

Under current situation. Is it the time to turn bearish on Bitcoin and there will be no altseason this year?

For me, it is the best time to wait until the selling stopped and start shopping spree cause of several reason:

  • Bitcoin pullback from $109,354 to $81,923 is just a 25% pullback. The move is needed to flush out week hand after rally from $50,000.
  • Institution is not selling. You might say there are outflow from ETF. But logically, it is retail trader who are spooked by the current downmove.
  • Michael Saylor average purchase level is $66,380.42. (based on https://saylortracker.com/). Other institution might try to liquidate him but it might be hard this year.
  • Massive Crypto adoption might start in second quarter when President Trump policy take place.

What to do under current bearish sentiment?

 

We have a double top pattern confirmed with this week breakout. If the price closed below the neckline then there is chance of bearish continuation to complete the pattern target. The pattern target around $70,000.

MACD just making a bearish close which mean there is more chance that the bearish movement could continue for a while.

On the daily chart. Technically, we are entering the Fibonacci Retracement levels. The bearish movement might continue but as long as the Fibonacci Retracement level hold-out then we might not see movement below $70,000. Buying between $70,000 – $85,000 might be the best idea.

Moreover, RSI indicator entering oversold area which mean a bullish reversal could happen. Another confirmation to watch is when MACD start to cross-up.

When to turn bullish on Bitcoin?

The answer is when the price stabilize, found support between $70,000 – $85,000. Based on veteran traders I know, most says between April – May might be Bitcoin turning point and rally might happen around June – September. And Finally peaking on October and start a bearish trend.

 

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