It has been a very long time since I wrote on my blog. The latest article is dated to 2017. This happens mostly because I was focused on the writing and analysis for clients and managing my personal affairs.

Coronavirus changed the world radically which caused grief for some, but not much change for others who already work remotely. Under the current situation, I can safely say the world shifting from offline to more online and it means more and more innovation or competition in the future.

Nevertheless, the trading business might continue the same as always until we have different humans who think differently on how to trade.

I am planning to continue using the blog to experiment on the post and write my thought on trading. This article is about the U.S dollar index. If you want to contact me, you can click here for my Upwork profile

U.S dollar index fundamental view

Fundamentally, nobodies like the U.S dollar after the Fed announced full back-up on the economy. Stimulus deals also weigh on the currency.

In the previous month, the Fed Jerome Powell assured that the Fed will maintain the same stance and urged lawmakers to approve another stimulus bill to battle coronavirus impact. It could mean further weakness for the U.S dollar.

However, the U.S election loom. The election result could create a major change in the policies. Recently, U.S President Donald Trump diagnosed positive for coronavirus which triggers volatility in the market.

Traders and investors will expect more volatility depend on the news development while nearing the U.S election. The long-term direction of the U.S dollar index might be decided several months after the election.

U.S dollar index on the verge of bounce

Monthly Chart

On the monthly chart of the U.S dollar index. we could find the index tumbled from 100 handles and reach an orange box area between 92.00 – 93.00. The index stage a bounce from the box area and closed the month bullishly near 94.00.

The bullish reaction is normal after a nearly 10% drop from the 100 handles. In the previous week, U.S President Donald Trump and diagnosed positive for coronavirus which triggers uncertainties in the market.

I think the U.S dollar index might stage a bullish correction with 95.00 or the March low as a resistance level to watch. On the upside, June’s also will become the level to watch for a possible bullish extension.

Weekly Chart

The situation on the weekly chart interestingly confirmed that 96.10 might become the final resistance to watch. There is a weekly SMA 200 present which will become major resistance to watch. At the current time, the index will attempt to climb above 94.00 and target 95.00

Daily Chart

U.S dollar index printed higher high and higher low on the daily chart which means the short-term trend is bullish. If the index starts moving higher above 94.00 – 94.30 then we will have higher low confirmation.

Trading Plan

Traders who have long positions in U.S dollar pairs could continue to hold long positions until the index reverses its direction. We think 95.00 and 96.10 will become the major levels to watch.

However, if the index could print lower close below 92.60 then it is the time to turn bearish entirely.