Tag Archives: AUD/USD

Long-term map on forex major pairs EUR/USD & GBP/USD

Fundamental Outlook

First of all, there are major shift which happen in the world as of now, Here is the major outlook on several countries:

  1. USA – the trend is bullish for the currency as The Fed ready to increase the interest rate three fold. But, outlook on political ground is uncertain as President Trump might rock the financial market with his policies
  2. Europe – There is slow switch from bearish to bullish trend as the countries inside Eurozone recovered. Brexit might cause heavy casualties, and Eurozone waiting for other possible referendum. Though bearish, expect shift of Euro from bearish to bullish this year or the year after.
  3. Japan – No change to policies, they love the Yen weakness and will continue to do it.  But if most central bank start increase their interest-rate. Japan might end its negative rate policy.
  4. China – Being attacked by President Trump is not a happy thing. The country stay strong but growth slowly decline.
  5. Australia – May enjoy upward momentum in the currecy as gold and other precious metal recovered in inflation laden economy.

Out of all positive news, Euro will become weakest currency followed by UK Pound sterling. And there is possibility the world tension increase under protectionism policy implemented by advanced economy.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD

EUR/USD bull might not love this situation where the pair is near the top of consolidation range. In March, the pair might be limited below 1.0800 and start moving down after the top tested. But, it is possible for the bull to reverse the major trend too. For now, let’s just look at price reaction near the top 1.0800.

GBP/USD

I am waiting for short opportunity in GBP/USD also. Similar to EUR/USD the pair might experience sharp turn at the end of March as UK trigger Brexit. Watch for short chance in the pair.

Trading Plan

Short position  at 1.0800 for EUR/USD with stop above 1.0850++, possible to add position at 1.0825.

Short position when GBP/USD hit 1.2480 – 1.2500, stop placed 100 pips above the area.

Note: Will switch to long position depend on fundamental development.