Life – past stories, good experience

Life must goes on, people always talking about that. Yes this year I got out of one community and I think everything gonna work fine. But I realize I’m too naive thinking like that, people can say I’m too easy to trust people. Each time people said careful with your judgement, I just said that person can be trusted…. and here I am facing consequences of my decision.

I partnered as investor with my fellow guy in the community, I respected this person as leader and my discipler, the stories started when he was in financial trouble, I lent him and said its okay you can return it to me later slowly. After that event, he resigned from his work, all I know he got resignation benefit from Jamsostek and paid all he owed (I’m not included). Not long from that time, he partnered with other guy but with bad percentage of profit sharing of 50:50. He came to me and offered 30:70 while showing me report of income, I simply trusted and think okay I can make the deal better.

You take 70% and also calculate your transportation cost, all the cost needed to do this business.

The deal soon started out of trust, I can withdraw profit after reach Rp. 10,000,000 (I started with Rp. 6.000.000), near end of last year I added Rp. 3.000.000 also with phone and tab to sell valued around Rp. 1.000.000. November is the first profit withdrawal Rp. 590.000 and December is the second Rp. 1.280.000. After that he ask me to wait he’ll transfer next month with all of the last month profit.

I waited, waited, waited until start of March I ask when will he transfer, he only ask for my bank account number and ask me when he can meet me, I said I’m available at Cikarang, when I return to Jakarta it’ll be tentative because currently its been busy time. We hadn’t met, last reply from him was 18 March. No reply, only avoidance, I shot msg at his Facebook, but no reply.

What I feel only disappointment, No perfect friend, no perfect communities, especially when I heard rumor around that I break the contract and not in partnership again. I can only said, “Never sacrifice friendship because of money, money can be found, but true friend hard to find”.

I can only said, thank you, you can take everything but remember to repent when there is time, thank you for teaching me so I can be careful around whoever I called friend.

Let’s back to trading.

Bear knocking on the door

Today might be one of the doom and gloom day, reminding me about how everyone think market going to collapse and “SELL SELL SELL!! everything you have” said all analyst. Yes they were right on 2008, but they were wrong in 2009, 2014, 2015, we still survive. Question is for how long?

This is article from zerohedge, TOPIX already down 20% from August 2015 high and it entered bear market.

There are no good news, yesterday i read European market entered bear market, oil $30 was a prelude to $20 or maybe $10. For me, people keep yelling SELL! only mean bull market haven’t done yet with it business. 2007-2008 was a good example of this until suddenly the drop getting severe and wipe everything out.

2009 mark inflection point and start of new bull market, but most of the analyst still yelling SEEEEELLLLLLLL!

Right now, just wait patiently, opportunities will come and we can buy a lot of strong companies using less capital.

I have position in BEI market, but I only partially invested in some shares such as GIAA, ASII, KLBF, SRIL. Eyeing for PGAS. I also expect Rupiah will weaken against dollar maybe 2-6 months and reach Rp. 15.000 for each USD.

Test post from android phone

Yay, writing this post using android phone the first time, before attending Sunday service.

Never though new phone really powerful and give such flexibility. Although not able to do heavy formatting, I can post while not in front of my computer.

Next week will be interesting situation for market where dollar might stengthened more, but let’s enjoy weekend for now.

Watchlist & Calculation for IHSG

List to watch
Stock in my watchlist

Made calculation and analysis for IHSG, currently only for shares traded in my friend portfolio and some famous company, the calculation I made using 10-year average growth method in Sales, earnings, ROE, cash, ROIC. This is only to qualify the company I want to hold for long term. Base on the calculation SMCB came out as top performing company, but something to note, the company already reached target price for 2013 at IDR 3,554.

You might notice I bought SMCB and hold it several days from 2350 to 2475 only to see the shares rocketing to 2800 (an increase of around 20%), sometime trading environment can influence trader inside the market and let them think market will turn away, this time it happen to me, I though market will bring this shares to 1800 although I already know this company was good company and worth to hold.

Well good news is the position close in profit that is what we must be grateful of. Scrolling down the list, VIVA, HRUM, INDF, ASII were the second choice, but I only want to watch VIVA and HRUM because the price currently below discount price base on my calculation. Aside from that I bought CTRA and ADHI before, and they jumped nicely its not only because of the calculation I made, but I looked at technical part and IHSG position.

Today IHSG is in bearish mode, not nice for me, because newest addition shares I bought resulted in minor floating loss, not erasing my winning last month but enough to sound alarm. Will update next post with analysis of company.

Experience is father of success, repetition is mother of success

I currently managing portfolio of my friend, the portfolio given to me at 23 September last month roughly around 27-30M. Looking at the portfolio it was really battered and damaged by the positions held. At first I though okay this size was good, but after heard the initial value of 150M, I felt…. “Well that is what every newbie do and give us profit”. I can say this because I have gone through same path. Surely discouraging, big pressure, angry, drive me to ask why God let me through this path?

I got lot of answer and things to learn, some of it were:

1. Humble character through experience – acknowledging market always right and if I’m wrong, its not about pride and fault. I believe most of us traders have felt at least once being humiliated by market, humiliated I mean was experiencing huge blowout to account, margin call, losing quarter, half, three quarter or all of the deposit. After humiliated, its our decision to maintain our ego, blaming ourselves, blaming systems, or acknowledging sometime losses are acceptable.

2. Truth in market is capital – you can boast you know about A, B, C, D until Z. But if you cannot make use of it or worse losing capital while trading, then you know nothing at all. I’ve met lot of preacher, talking about this and that truth which is compelling but in the end its all about good to hear music only (Lip service). Learn how to protect capital and practice what you learn, otherwise market will judge and punish you hard with losses.

3. Start from small – no one ever trusted to manage big things before they can manage small things. Keeping journal, making notes of what to trade, daily plan, long term plan, all of it are small things behind trading. I don’t think newbie trader keep track on what they buy, why they buy it and why they sell it, if you don’t know how is your system performing, how is your psychological condition while trading then you should start to know about all of it. Too detailed sometime dangerous too because can cause numbness which hinder you from taking trade, the key is maintaining balance.

That is several things I learn from my trading experience. All of them I learn from hard way, losing all my deposits, staring the monitor in pain, shedding tears, time and energy monitoring the position. I have paid good price for all I know right now, and I hope all newbie don’t need to experience what I experience, can learn it from easy way while knowing there is hard way.

Now I want to post the position when I was given the portfolio and current condition of the portfolio:

Starting portfolio
Starting portfolio 23 September 2013

I made big “overhaul” to the account and here is current position of the account

Current Portfolio
Current Portfolio as of 25 October 2013

And lastly all of the trade I took since I take over the account:

Trade taken between 23 September - 25 October 2013
Trade taken between 23 September – 25 October 2013

I use system as I posted in my site, that is supply and demand, using it with same rules and keep repeating them, of course there is calculation I use to determine stock value using ratio analysis and projection but I won’t post it here yet, and I don’t include my plan in this post. My point is repetition is mother of success, when you find something that is working just repeat it again and again until its not working again. The screenshot just a mean to encourage everyone who struggle in their trading, I hope this post will entertain and become inspiration for all of you who read it.

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