Today might be one of the doom and gloom day, reminding me about how everyone think market going to collapse and “SELL SELL SELL!! everything you have” said all analyst. Yes they were right on 2008, but they were wrong in 2009, 2014, 2015, we still survive. Question is for how long?

This is article from zerohedge, TOPIX already down 20% from August 2015 high and it entered bear market.

There are no good news, yesterday i read European market entered bear market, oil $30 was a prelude to $20 or maybe $10. For me, people keep yelling SELL! only mean bull market haven’t done yet with it business. 2007-2008 was a good example of this until suddenly the drop getting severe and wipe everything out.

2009 mark inflection point and start of new bull market, but most of the analyst still yelling SEEEEELLLLLLLL!

Right now, just wait patiently, opportunities will come and we can buy a lot of strong companies using less capital.

I have position in BEI market, but I only partially invested in some shares such as GIAA, ASII, KLBF, SRIL. Eyeing for PGAS. I also expect Rupiah will weaken against dollar maybe 2-6 months and reach Rp. 15.000 for each USD.

I currently managing portfolio of my friend, the portfolio given to me at 23 September last month roughly around 27-30M. Looking at the portfolio it was really battered and damaged by the positions held. At first I though okay this size was good, but after heard the initial value of 150M, I felt…. “Well that is what every newbie do and give us profit”. I can say this because I have gone through same path. Surely discouraging, big pressure, angry, drive me to ask why God let me through this path?

I got lot of answer and things to learn, some of it were:

1. Humble character through experience – acknowledging market always right and if I’m wrong, its not about pride and fault. I believe most of us traders have felt at least once being humiliated by market, humiliated I mean was experiencing huge blowout to account, margin call, losing quarter, half, three quarter or all of the deposit. After humiliated, its our decision to maintain our ego, blaming ourselves, blaming systems, or acknowledging sometime losses are acceptable.

2. Truth in market is capital – you can boast you know about A, B, C, D until Z. But if you cannot make use of it or worse losing capital while trading, then you know nothing at all. I’ve met lot of preacher, talking about this and that truth which is compelling but in the end its all about good to hear music only (Lip service). Learn how to protect capital and practice what you learn, otherwise market will judge and punish you hard with losses.

3. Start from small – no one ever trusted to manage big things before they can manage small things. Keeping journal, making notes of what to trade, daily plan, long term plan, all of it are small things behind trading. I don’t think newbie trader keep track on what they buy, why they buy it and why they sell it, if you don’t know how is your system performing, how is your psychological condition while trading then you should start to know about all of it. Too detailed sometime dangerous too because can cause numbness which hinder you from taking trade, the key is maintaining balance.

That is several things I learn from my trading experience. All of them I learn from hard way, losing all my deposits, staring the monitor in pain, shedding tears, time and energy monitoring the position. I have paid good price for all I know right now, and I hope all newbie don’t need to experience what I experience, can learn it from easy way while knowing there is hard way.

Now I want to post the position when I was given the portfolio and current condition of the portfolio:

I made big “overhaul” to the account and here is current position of the account

And lastly all of the trade I took since I take over the account:

I use system as I posted in my site, that is supply and demand, using it with same rules and keep repeating them, of course there is calculation I use to determine stock value using ratio analysis and projection but I won’t post it here yet, and I don’t include my plan in this post. My point is repetition is mother of success, when you find something that is working just repeat it again and again until its not working again. The screenshot just a mean to encourage everyone who struggle in their trading, I hope this post will entertain and become inspiration for all of you who read it.

This website had been offline for very long time because I cannot maintain it, but finally I can manage the host and also domain. Today I want to talk about IHSG, the projection also what we can expect. First of all, before we look at IHSG chart, there are several fundamental issues we can take a look into and consider what is the major view of the market.

Several things to note:

1. Interest rate for October was unchanged at 7.25%, October inflation was 8.4% Versus expected 8.57%. Improvement in economic condition help BI to keep interest rate unchanged, I believe this situation is temporary, market expect another increase of rate around 50 pts. I personally think rate increase won’t help economy to recover, rupiah may go up but expensive money discourage business to apply for loan and will slow expansion. Increase in BI rate won’t be good, weaker rupiah is good I think because this discourage import and people will think about local consumption.

2. Shut down in US government, big issue yet nothing to be afraid of. Reading around the internet, US need to repay or refinance their debt, total debt matured between 30 October – 15 November around $6 billion said congressman Tim Huelskamp. Debt ceiling probably will be raised, US can’t afford to default, surely China and Japan won’t sit idly because both of them are major holder of US debt.

3. Unemployment rate currently at 5.9%, looking at chart below, we can see improvement in labor market and I think this government have been doing good job.

4. Everybody knew about tapering that is going to happen I think, currently Pres Obama nominated Janet Yellen to hold position of Fed governor, replacing Ben Bernanke. Market favor Yellen to delay tapering until next year. I don’t think tapering will be delayed, but in market anything can happen.

Now here is IHSG chart

Discussing about technical analysis, IHSG weekly bounced from demand level around 3800 – 3900 and currently hanging at supply level 4500 – 4700+. This is second time IHSG test supply level, I believe with good news from local market, market participant is waiting for other news from worldwide. Buying at supply prove to be risky, IHSG still can go up, but waiting it reach demand level might be wiser.

Today I bought position at ADHI, CTRA, and SMCB base on calculation I made and the shares price at good level, if market decided to go down at this level, then I will exit because all of this are short term positions.