Trading Eureka

I think it is not my style to blab and writing about trading psychology, maybe it is the most important thing in trading, but I believe it is homework for each of you. Trading psychology really close with your trait, your habit, your thinking, to change all of them you need to create the new “YOU” and I don’t have confident to change the “YOU” who read my article.

Today I want to discuss about IHSG chart, I will tell you how I make plan for IHSG and going deeper into stock selection or if I am really lazy, I will choose mutual fund (reksa dana), from my research reksa dana NAV movement 90% similar to IHSG movement. Last month when IHSG reaching 3200 I bought average at 3300 and sell at 3600-3700 bagging around 9% – 10% ROI. Pretty nice for period of 2-3 weeks and I only need to pay the redemption fee of 0.5% as there is no subscription fee, not bad because if we trade using brokerage service, they’ll charge you 0.15% for buy and 0.25% for sell total of 0.4% plus tax and the worst thing that could happen is your stock underperforming the market.

Enough of the blab and forgive me for the blab, let’s get into trading, here is IHSG chart below.

 

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Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – lets get cracking!

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Do you see the flag? I think it is easy to spot *chuckle*, Okay what is the importance of this flag you say?

In the field of technical analysis every analyst deal with pattern, we assume that history will repeat again, market not moving randomly and we can predict what it will do in the future. Of course all is prediction and prone to failure.

For the chart above, I would like to tell you what is flag pattern, knowing what this pattern do will help you when analyzing…. but I hate to explain in very long sentence so I’ll write a very short line:

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“I am successful trader, I make $5,000 everyday and I’m really grateful.”

This line is my dream, my obsession, and my goal. I know there are skepticism around me, people just keep talking “you can’t do it, what you do is useless, you better find real job where you can have career and get a lot of money, see him/her/them.” And and and and what do you think will happen when their company closed down? or maybe the owner change so the management must change too.

I have seen too many people who I know not prepared when they lose their job, they not only lose, they also have no will to stand up again, and the worst they start to curse their luck and God. I have been in that position, so what I feel is sympathy also anger…. all things happen with a reason, and what your choice is not free of “RISK”, accepting the risk and managing the risk as low as possible is what you need to do in all aspect of your life. I’m angered because they have no backup plan as saving account to use when the worst happen while accumulating capital to go back to the battlefield.

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