Hello, i have come back with new analysis regarding IHSG,in the past I have shown in my analysis that if IHSG can go above cluster of resistance then it is easy for it to retake 4000 level. Here is the link to past analysis IHSG November 2011 projection

Today i would like to present continuation of the scenario, before that, here is the chart for daily candlestick.

Daily chart

Current chart give me warning that IHSG failed to break 3800 level and now it is clearly going to test the support around 3600 at daily chart. If this support taken down, most likely we will see IHSG going lower to test past support around 3200. Surely this is scenario that we fear the most.

Weekly chart 

We will look into weekly chart, weekly chart show to us that momentum currently switching to bearish momentum, although there is no scientific explanation because I base it on what I see and subjective judgement, I can say from technical point of view, IHSG hardly able to defend the famous moving average 60 and the bear is hungry.

Monthly chart

Here is the last chart for IHSG analysis, If you think I am elliot wave expert, you got it wrong, i just use it to justify what I see, because what I see is simple, 50% retracement from last swing (2008 low – 1200 up to 2011 high – 4200), the number would fall into 2700. When I mention this number, everyone saying I’m insane, oh well i’m not there to protect my opinion, the question is if IHSG really fall to that level, what will you do? Do you have a plan?

Last week bank person called me and she asked, sir why don’t you invest now, IHSG currently at 3750 and it is bargain, I said to her that I’ll wait the price fell to 3600 before I decide anything, she said to me wow! surely hard to think IHSG will fall to that level, you will miss good trade. That event drive the other me who want to buy, but luckily I limit myself to buy only 10% of current equity and voila IHSG currently sit at 3637, lowest was around 3620 I guess.

To help you with what i will do, here is what in my mind:

1. I’ll trade very short term, not holding position if support broken, I’ll only trade when we are at strong support, otherwise I’ll avoid stock market and trading forex, gold or other securities that allow two direction.
2. If IHSG really fall to 2700, i’ll load up my equity and invest up to 90% after through analysis.
3. I’ll invest in mutual fund if necessary and never look back until the gains reach 50% of invested capital (IHSG at 2700 – 3000 scenario

If IHSG fall to 2700 level, what will you do? Do you have a plan?

My suggestion take out your paper, write down what will you do if IHSG fall to 3200, 3000, 2700 or lower. Keep the paper in your journal, and make sure you’ll do what is written in the paper later.