I have promised my friend to make analysis about some companies but a little bit late, now I have time to make the analysis, for starter I’ll begin with HRUM (PT. Harum Energy) . When doing analysis we want to make top down analysis. Which mean making analysis about global market condition and later going deeper to regional analysis, sector analysis  and finally stock analysis.
Here is what I’d say:
– current global market situation all depend in Europe situation, i think there is debate saying that it is better for Greece to get out of Eurozone, today I read in internet and find that Belgium downgraded (forget by who, I don’t really care, cause downgrade means bad), in 2011 all news I hear just downgrade downgrade and downgrade the same like 2008. Which lead to conclusion that current sentiment not really good for stock market.
– From regional view, Europe surely avoid, USA might need to avoid too because there is growing concern that USA debt might get another downgrade, Asia by far the best out but not invincible. Indonesian market rated as strong market and we heard next year Indonesia might get investment grade rating awarded.
– HRUM is member of energy sector that depend on commodity price, I think commodity price currently falling down versus dollar which is not really good for the company.
– For the company itself, I remember HRUM reported good result only there is some losses from currency volatility that eat most part of the profit.
Basically from fundamental point of view, we can conclude that it is strong domestic market but weak global outlook, anything that blow the global market will have effect to local condition. give this 7 out of 10 for investing.
Valuation
I’ll skip for this section, as HRUM is still a young company (in the sense that it is < 5 year listed in BEI)
Technical analysis
Now my favorite, we are going to talk HRUM from technical point of view:
Daily chart
HRUM chart showing weakness, current price still hovering around 7400 – 7500 level, clear breakdown from this level will lead to re-test of last low made between September – October
Weekly Chart
Weekly chart showing that price challenging Moving average 20 and failed to close higher, currently price floating in no man zone, I think it is logical to think that HRUM might challenge lower trend line.
Now after making analysis, we can go through the plan we can take, here is my recommendation
placing buy around 6000 – 6200 level or waiting for IPO price, we can hold major position here, but if price go lower than 6000 I’ll start to think get out of position, because that is no man land. No history for this stock to go lower than that level. Where is the target? MA 20 is the logical target I think.
That is for HRUM analysis, feel free to shoot me email for question.