This week EUR/USD slaughtered because of growing concern for troubled country, Italy bond yield going up above 7% and staying up persistently, followed by Spain bond’s yield that also surge to 7%. Why 7% limit really important? because this is critical level that once reached will mark no way back zone.

I believe the situation really dire with trader and investor currently hunting for dollar that everyone expect going down in the future…  the most unusual thing that happen is Gold falling also, in the past when tension build up, gold most of the time will go up (that is what happen last September when Greece throwing tantrum gold reach all time high at $1919.9. Why gold keep falling right now? the answer is everyone buying undervalued dollar and keep buying until everything breaking down.

Here is chart for gold:

This time I’m using Bill William Alligator to make the analysis, maybe I’m not an expert using his system, but I know his system really good. okay, judging from the chart, currently price sitting at Alligator’s Jaw (red line), what I can see is 2 scenario;

1. If price supported from this level, we might see continuation of moving up and will look to place long trade at around $1810 level, you ask why so high? well that is the standard, we buy when there is fractal breakout. If you are impatient waiting, maybe you’d like to see lower time frame chart.
2. Price in fact break below the jaw, this is not good and I think gold will target it’s major trend line (connect low around 28 July 2010 – 27 January 2011 to see the trend line)

I have small long currently waiting for bounce around the Jaw, hopefully I can get it, otherwise breaking down and looking for short opportunity.

Now let’s talk about IHSG, finally have chance to make analysis for the index for this site. I see that index currently moving at yellow channel, it might keep moving higher, but today it seems price might close below the line and going into the green area. 3600 in the past was strong support, this time it will act as support again. Considering all the condition, i conclude that waiting still a good thing to do, around 3700 there is moving average 60 and it is the first thing to be tested and good place to buy for short term.

This is it for today,

the global market really weak and the cause is Europe, trend won’t change until there are bold move from Europe to take care trouble from their side. Spain is next at stage.